Score? Chelsea 4, Palace 1.
Exploiting the Odds
As the public likes to bet on favourites most times and these favourites do not lose or draw often enough for the bookmakers’ appetite, it makes sense that they use this psychological function mostly in Asian Handicap odds.
The Other Parties Involved
The bookies met two objectives with this match. Some will clear and some won’t most match days. That is, bet on those teams which are being bet heavily on. The very high and rather rare handicap of 1.75 given by the bookies seemed to confirm this fact.
The bookies need to let the public win sometimes. A check with the odds confirm that prices on Middlesbrough are getting lower.
Not much movement in the odds (above) to suggest heavy backing of Valencia by the public to warrant such a handicap.. Check for large trends once or twice a day for three days and check the odds a last time an hour or two just before the match. Is there something that most of the public wouldn’t know? If the non-favourite team exhibits traits that could help them win (or draw) or if the favourite team has some factors going against them, bet on the underdog just like the bookie, when the betting public is going heavy on the favourites. Check for Class, Form, Motivation and other factors as described in THE GUIDE.
When you see odds like these, you first have to recognize certain factors outside the movements of these odds. This is where the public can lose if they bet on favourites who win by just goal. When you see little action on popular favourites from the odds movement and the asian handicap is reasonably high against the favourites, you might choose to bet on the favourites then. So look out for favourable opening or early odds on these teams which eventually climb to normal levels when the match is about to start. In this case, go with the flow of the betting. Punters missed this opportunity to win from betting on their favourites but they noticed the scoreline and regained their confidence in the favourite again.
Sporting Lisbon had won the previous reverse fixture 3-2.
Odds and their movements present a unique opportunity to gauge what the bookie thinks and how the markets react to them. Sometimes, even the bookies/big boys make mistakes or events occur which have not been expected. The bookie is seducing you to bet on the underdog. (This take some experience and study.)
Remember that mastering this is something of an artform and takes some time and experience to get good at. Some of them even bet on Palace, evidenced by slightly dropping prices on the underdog, thinking perhaps Chelsea were losing their form. Punters were sure Boro would go all out to win this match to avoid disqualification from the UEFA Cup. If everyone there seems to say they are betting on one team but the betting odds prove that money is being poured on the other, you will know that the heavy betting is not done by the Joe Publics.
How do you tell if people have fallen for the trap?
This is the psychological function of the odds used to the fullest by the bookmakers to fool the public. Well, we do not know the answer to that but we know that when a relatively well-known team is given a 0.5 handicap by a less-popular team, everybody bets on the popular team, confident that they can at least draw with the ‘obscure’ team. However, there are other parties around – big timers with inside knowledge, betting syndicates, match-fixers, etc who are not necessarily friendly to the bookie. Also, sometimes the big bookies intentionally let the public have a good week or two (rarer and rarer though) -to let losses wipe out the smaller bookies and throw off anyone who’s on to their game. Ever notice how top teams quite often (not always) beat bottom ones by small margins? Chelsea won 1-0.
How do you make sure that the heavy betting is by these big boys in the know? Check out the forums.
We do not know what the bookies know but the final score?
Take note however, that on any matchday, there is seldom the case that all the favourites fail to clear the handicap, even when the public is betting heavily on them. When you see particularly heavy betting on weak teams, check the various factors and if you realise there’s no reason for it, be aware of such ‘big boy’ action going on.
Knowing that the memory of this was still fresh in the minds of punters, bookmakers posted the same opening handicap for Chelsea the following week at 1.75.
There is no such thing as a foolproof method. They confused the public with the same handicap and the same team at different times and the favourites won heavily without much betting on them.
Valencia vs Getafe 1.975 0 : 1 1.925
Sometimes, the big odd movements are caused by these parties (less often) and not by the betting public. When? When the action is low.
That was the most common scenario.
As always, when unsure, lay off.
Considering how the bookie always wins from the general betting public in the long run, it is wise to piggyback on the bookies’ predictions by considering how they market the odds.
SPL Match Day 20 Mar 2005
UEFA Match Day: 17 Mar 2005
Sporting Lissabon vs Middlesbrough 2.05 0 : 1/2 1.85
EPL Match Day: 19 Mar 2005
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace 2.05 0 : 1 3/4 1.85
Verdict: Bet Valencia
You can tell what the bookie is trying to achieve from the early odds.
On the whole, however, it is a very accurate way to predict winners based on the number of winning bets this has produced for some pro-bettors.
- Beating the Big Boys at Their Own Game! see here